A Great Idea to Help You Worry Less

To be human is to worry. Even the most optimistic people occasionally obsess over bad things that could possibly happen. I believe it was pastor Tony Evans who identified the important difference between concern and worry when he observed that I control concern, but worry controls me. He’s absolutely right!

I’ve spent more than my allotted time worrying, but I’ve also learned a couple of approaches that have helped me tame the worry beast. I will share one this week and another one in my next blog.

Absolutely everything in life carries at least some level of risk. Believe it or not, there is actually a clinical medical code (ICD-10 V91.07x) for a doctor to report burns caused by someone’s water skis catching fire. Think about that for a minute.

It’s easy to catastrophize the future and rush emotionally toward worst-case outcomes. One way to counter this is to analyze your situation and try to assess the true likelihood of the bad outcome materializing. Let me show you how this can work.

A few years ago, I was talking with a couple considering a trip to London. At the time, the city had just experienced its third terroristic bombing within about six months, causing the couple to reconsider their trip.

Let’s look at the situation more closely. Assume a pessimistic scenario where London would suffer one bombing a month (twice the then-current rate). That means that any given day has a 3.3% likelihood of an incident. If this couple’s trip lasted six days, statistically, they would have about a 20% chance of being in London on the day a bomb went off. The odds against being involved are clearly in their favor.

At 607 square miles, London is pretty big. Of course, bombers would attack high-traffic areas, but even it if only 10% is high traffic, that’s still 60 square miles – a pretty big area. In order to be directly affected when the bomb went off, our couple would visit the exact spot – within a few dozen yards of the bomb – inside the 60 square mile area. It’s hard to estimate, but the chances of them being at precisely the wrong location on the wrong day are very low.

Then you have to consider exact timing. Bombings happen in an instant. Terrorists would probably select a high-volume time, say between 10:00 a.m. and 10:00 p.m. – a period consisting of 720 minutes. So, there is only a 1 in 720 chance (slightly more than 0.1%) that they would be there the exact minute the bomb went off.

It’s impossible to do a precise mathematical calculation of their risk, but thinking through the odds this way can yield an “order of magnitude” risk assessment and put the possibility of danger in perspective. In order for them to be harmed, they would have to be in the exact wrong place on the exact wrong day at the exact wrong instant. Is that possible? Sure. It’s also possible my skis will catch fire next time I go water skiing.

Anyone who has ever seen a University of Michigan football game at Michigan Stadium (“The Big House”) is overwhelmed by sheer capacity –109,901 fans – of the largest collegiate stadium in the country. Years ago while attending a game there, I remember thinking through the odds of a terrible outcome I feared and concluding that the likelihood of it happening would be about the same as me being the winner of one of three $100 gift cards given at random to someone in the packed Michigan Stadium. Seeing the sea of people in front of me help put me at ease, realizing how astronomically low the probability was. And, by the way, the dreaded thing never did happen.

Of course, there is always a chance of bad outcomes, but sitting down and actually thinking about the probability typically “defangs” the worry monster.

Next time, I’ll share another approach that has also helped me enormously. Stay tuned.